UPDATE 1-B: Okay, now they're just getting scary. From the Tulsa Weather Service office (as relayed by Tornado Quest):
A WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING LATE INTO THE EVENING. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RESCUE AND RECOVERY EFFORTS.
The TxStormChasers summed it up this way on Twitter:
ORIGINAL POST:
New forecast out, and if the National Weather Service could send it using strobe lights, they would. The forecasts are getting increasingly dire.
Okay, when they start talking like that, that means even the forecasters are starting to get scared. These are the guys who like to go watch tornadoes for fun, remember.
The real upshot of this is that the only people who will be be surprised when they hit are the people who weren't paying attention. A commenter on twitter noted that only one tornado has occurred this year outside of a tornado watch.
The forecast is below; note in particular the phrasing: "LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS."
"Favoring potential for long-tracked strong/violent tornadoes." Today and tonight are going to be ugly. People are going to get hurt today.
The forecast, in full:
The real upshot of this is that the only people who will be be surprised when they hit are the people who weren't paying attention. A commenter on twitter noted that only one tornado has occurred this year outside of a tornado watch.
The forecast is below; note in particular the phrasing: "LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS."
"Favoring potential for long-tracked strong/violent tornadoes." Today and tonight are going to be ugly. People are going to get hurt today.
The forecast, in full:
SPC AC 241625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL
TX...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...AND NORTHWEST AR....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+
KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT
WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH
NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS.
DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN VA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
